Next day air quality forecasts are provided as part of a six month trial across 19 regions in New South Wales. The forecasts are generated from an air quality forecasting system (AQFS) to estimate expected conditions. Forecasts are published daily at 4 pm.
- Good
- Fair
- Poor
- Very poor
- Extremely poor
Disclaimer
Forecasts are for general information only and may differ from actual air quality conditions due to uncertainties in meteorological predictions, pollutant emissions estimates, and occurrence of unforeseen events. During significant air pollution events, users should refer to current monitoring data and official emergency information sources.
Further Information
How forecasts are created
Weather conditions and pollutant movement
The forecasts are created using a computer modelling system that combines weather and air pollutant data.
The weather model (Weather Research and Forecast) predicts conditions like wind and temperature. The pollutant transport model (Community Multi‑Scale Air Quality Model) predicts the fate of pollutants, such as how pollutants move and change in the air.
Air quality is calculated for each region
The system predicts next‑day air quality at each monitoring location within a region. Each location is given an air quality category (AQC), such as Good or Fair, based on predicted pollution. For more information, see Air quality categories.
The system then compares the categories across all locations in the region and selects the highest AQC. This category represents the forecast for the entire region.
For example, in East Sydney, the system predicts next‑day air quality at each of the seven monitoring locations in the region (Alexandria, Cook and Phillip, Earlwood, Macquarie Park, Randwick, Rozelle and Ultimo‑UTS). Each location is given an air quality category.
The system then compares all locations and selects the highest category. For example, if six locations are Good but Macquarie Park is Fair, the forecast for the East Sydney region will be Fair.
About this trial
The AQFS is a six‑month trial and will be tested and improved during this time. We are updating NSW emissions data to improve forecast accuracy, especially in rural areas.
The forecasts are estimates and may change if conditions change. Events such as hazard reduction burns or bushfires that occur after the 4pm forecast is issued will not be reflected in the forecast.
For current air quality conditions, see Air Quality NSW and follow the recommended health advice.